Is NVSEF undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Novartis AG's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag NVSEF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Novartis AG's fair value?

Fair value for NVSEF is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value NVSEF?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from NVSEF's most recent reported fundamentals.

NVSEF - Novartis AG

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 18.3% above fair value

Current Price $145.78

Bear Case $105.67 27.5% downside ($105.67 - $145.78) / $145.78 = -27.5% $8.81 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $123.28 15.4% downside ($123.28 - $145.78) / $145.78 = -15.4% $8.81 × 14x P/E

Bull Case $140.89 3.4% downside ($140.89 - $145.78) / $145.78 = -3.4% $8.81 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

14.0x

Adjusted EPS

8.81$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.81, the base-case value is $123.28 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 212% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples