NVR, Inc. logo NVR - NVR, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 10
HOLD 10
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $7,465.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $8,096.00
LOW: $6,600.00
MEDIAN: $7,700.00
CONSENSUS: $7,465.33
UPSIDE: 23.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.5% below fair value
Current Price $6043.84
Bear Case $6,541.13 8.2% upside ($6,541.13 - $6,043.84) / $6,043.84 = 8.2% $463.31 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $8,332.25 37.9% upside ($8,332.25 - $6,043.84) / $6,043.84 = 37.9% $463.31 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $10,123.38 67.5% upside ($10,123.38 - $6,043.84) / $6,043.84 = 67.5% $463.31 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
463.31$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($463.31)

Implied Market Multiple 13.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7465.33 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8332.25 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing