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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 58.5% above fair value
Current Price $86.31
Bear Case $41.81 51.6% downside ($41.81 - $86.31) / $86.31 = -51.6% $3.16 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $54.44 36.9% downside ($54.44 - $86.31) / $86.31 = -36.9% $3.16 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $67.07 22.3% downside ($67.07 - $86.31) / $86.31 = -22.3% $3.16 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.16$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.16)

Implied Market Multiple 27.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.16 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $54.44 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 7.2x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 7.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing