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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 94.2% above fair value
Current Price $98.12
Bear Case $37.90 61.4% downside ($37.90 - $98.12) / $98.12 = -61.4% $3.16 × 12x
Fair Value $50.53 48.5% downside ($50.53 - $98.12) / $98.12 = -48.5% $3.16 × 16x
Bull Case $63.16 35.6% downside ($63.16 - $98.12) / $98.12 = -35.6% $3.16 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.16$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.16)

Implied Market Multiple 31.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.16 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $50.53 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 8.1x.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 8.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing