NU - Nu Holdings Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.53
DETAILS
HIGH:
$19.00
LOW:
$13.00
MEDIAN:
$17.60
CONSENSUS:
$16.53
UPSIDE:
2.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
27.9%
9.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (27.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.59x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 27.9% vs. 9.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.78x on $2.12 tangible book, implying $8.03 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$16.53
Analyst Range
$13.00 – $19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.53 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly