NETSTREIT Corp. logo NTST - NETSTREIT Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
UPSIDE: 13.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.4% above fair value
Current Price $20.73
Bear Case $14.35 30.8% downside ($14.35 - $20.73) / $20.73 = -30.8% $0.97 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $17.66 14.8% downside ($17.66 - $20.73) / $20.73 = -14.8% $0.97 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $20.97 1.2% upside ($20.97 - $20.73) / $20.73 = 1.2% $0.97 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
0.97$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.97) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 21.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.97 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.66 per share. Dividend yield: 4.2%. DDM cross-check: $14.76.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $23.50
Analyst Range $22.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 25%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify