NETSTREIT Corp. logo NTST - NETSTREIT Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.25
UPSIDE: 8.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.2% above fair value
Current Price $20.43
Bear Case $16.53 19.1% downside ($16.53 - $20.43) / $20.43 = -19.1% $1.14 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $20.39 0.2% downside ($20.39 - $20.43) / $20.43 = -0.2% $1.14 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $24.25 18.7% upside ($24.25 - $20.43) / $20.43 = 18.7% $1.14 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.14$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.14) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.25 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.39 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $14.02 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify