NETSTREIT Corp. logo NTST - NETSTREIT Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $22.75
CONSENSUS: $22.75
UPSIDE: 30.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.5% below fair value
Current Price $17.43
Bear Case $14.24 18.3% downside ($14.24 - $17.43) / $17.43 = -18.3% $0.96 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $17.52 0.5% upside ($17.52 - $17.43) / $17.43 = 0.5% $0.96 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $20.80 19.3% upside ($20.80 - $17.43) / $17.43 = 19.3% $0.96 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
0.96$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.96) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.96 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.52 per share. Dividend yield: 5.0%. DDM cross-check: $14.76.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $22.75
Analyst Range $20.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify