Nutanix, Inc. logo NTNX - Nutanix, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 20
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $55.50
CONSENSUS: $56.60
UPSIDE: 20.12%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.2% below fair value
Current Price $47.12
Bear Case $37.43 20.6% downside ($37.43 - $47.12) / $47.12 = -20.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $56.21 19.3% upside ($56.21 - $47.12) / $47.12 = 19.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $76.73 62.8% upside ($76.73 - $47.12) / $47.12 = 62.8% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 24.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.60 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 187% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions