AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag NSSC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for NSSC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value NSSC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from NSSC's most recent reported fundamentals.

NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $49.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 48.5% below fair value

Current Price $36.32

Bear Case $36.20 0.3% downside ($36.20 - $36.32) / $36.32 = -0.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $70.57 94.3% upside ($70.57 - $36.32) / $36.32 = 94.3% 24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $117.38 223.2% upside ($117.38 - $36.32) / $36.32 = 223.2% 31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

23.9%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (24% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%

Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Market is pricing in (growth) 13.3% vs our 23.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.57 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 55% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions