Insperity, Inc. logo NSP - Insperity, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $56.00
CONSENSUS: $56.33
UPSIDE: 9.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.5% below fair value
Current Price $51.40
Bear Case $45.92 10.7% downside ($45.92 - $51.40) / $51.40 = -10.7% $3.46 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $57.40 11.7% upside ($57.40 - $51.40) / $51.40 = 11.7% $3.46 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $68.89 34.0% upside ($68.89 - $51.40) / $51.40 = 34.0% $3.46 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.6x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.46, the base-case value is $57.40 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $56.33
Analyst Range $52.00 – $61.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples