Insperity, Inc. logo NSP - Insperity, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $48.67
UPSIDE: 0.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.6% below fair value
Current Price $48.39
Bear Case $46.40 4.1% downside ($46.40 - $48.39) / $48.39 = -4.1% $3.64 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $57.99 19.8% upside ($57.99 - $48.39) / $48.39 = 19.8% $3.64 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $69.59 43.8% upside ($69.59 - $48.39) / $48.39 = 43.8% $3.64 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.6x
3.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.67 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $57.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples