New Residential Investment Corp. logo NRZ - New Residential Investment Corp.

Inactive Ticker NRZ is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 3
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.8% below fair value
Current Price $10.89
Bear Case $20.01 83.7% upside ($20.01 - $10.89) / $10.89 = 83.7% $1.20 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $24.11 121.4% upside ($24.11 - $10.89) / $10.89 = 121.4% $1.20 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $28.22 159.1% upside ($28.22 - $10.89) / $10.89 = 159.1% $1.20 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.2$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.20) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.20 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $24.11 per share. Dividend yield: 9.2%. DDM cross-check: $18.64.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 9.2% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify