Northrim BanCorp, Inc. logo NRIM - Northrim BanCorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $30.00
UPSIDE: 23.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.0% below fair value
Current Price $24.29
Bear Case $32.54 34.0% upside ($32.54 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 34.0% ROTCE 19.7% → 2.95x TBV
Fair Value $43.39 78.7% upside ($43.39 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 78.7% ROTCE 25.0% → 3.93x TBV
Bull Case $44.12 81.6% upside ($44.12 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 81.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

26.3%
9.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (26.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.2x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 26.3% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.93x on $11.03 tangible book, implying $43.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly