Northrim BanCorp, Inc. logo NRIM - Northrim BanCorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.2% below fair value
Current Price $27.27
Bear Case $33.69 23.5% upside ($33.69 - $27.27) / $27.27 = 23.5% ROTCE 19.7% → 3.05x TBV
Fair Value $44.12 61.8% upside ($44.12 - $27.27) / $27.27 = 61.8% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $44.12 61.8% upside ($44.12 - $27.27) / $27.27 = 61.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

26.3%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (26.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.47x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 26.3% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $11.03 tangible book, implying $44.12 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly