Northrim BanCorp, Inc. logo NRIM - Northrim BanCorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
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STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.2% below fair value
Current Price $24.64
Bear Case $32.58 32.2% upside ($32.58 - $24.64) / $24.64 = 32.2% ROTCE 19.7% → 2.95x TBV
Fair Value $44.12 79.1% upside ($44.12 - $24.64) / $24.64 = 79.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $44.12 79.1% upside ($44.12 - $24.64) / $24.64 = 79.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

26.3%
9.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (26.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.23x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 26.3% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $11.03 tangible book, implying $44.12 per share. DDM cross-check: $18.82.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $18.82 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly