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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.5% above fair value
Current Price $19.51
Bear Case $12.54 35.7% downside ($12.54 - $19.51) / $19.51 = -35.7% $1.25 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $15.68 19.7% downside ($15.68 - $19.51) / $19.51 = -19.7% $1.25 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $18.81 3.6% downside ($18.81 - $19.51) / $19.51 = -3.6% $1.25 × 15x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.5x
1.25$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.25, the base-case value is $15.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 141%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples