EnPro Industries, Inc. logo NPO - EnPro Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $315.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $345.00
LOW: $285.00
MEDIAN: $315.00
CONSENSUS: $315.00
UPSIDE: 2.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 135.8% above fair value
Current Price $308.25
Bear Case $98.43 68.1% downside ($98.43 - $308.25) / $308.25 = -68.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $130.74 57.6% downside ($130.74 - $308.25) / $308.25 = -57.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $160.26 48.0% downside ($160.26 - $308.25) / $308.25 = -48.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 47.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $315.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.74 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $315.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions