EnPro Industries, Inc. logo NPO - EnPro Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $315.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $345.00
LOW: $285.00
MEDIAN: $315.00
CONSENSUS: $315.00
DOWNSIDE: 4.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 154.0% above fair value
Current Price $330.92
Bear Case $97.84 70.4% downside ($97.84 - $330.92) / $330.92 = -70.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $130.26 60.6% downside ($130.26 - $330.92) / $330.92 = -60.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $159.89 51.7% downside ($159.89 - $330.92) / $330.92 = -51.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 50.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.5% vs our 7.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $315.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.26 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $315.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions