NPO - EnPro Industries, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$315.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$345.00
LOW:
$285.00
MEDIAN:
$315.00
CONSENSUS:
$315.00
UPSIDE:
2.19%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
7.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
47.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $315.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $315.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions