NPK International Inc. logo NPKI - NPK International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 148.5% above fair value
Current Price $14.73
Bear Case $4.53 69.3% downside ($4.53 - $14.73) / $14.73 = -69.3% $0.35 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $5.93 59.8% downside ($5.93 - $14.73) / $14.73 = -59.8% $0.35 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $7.33 50.3% downside ($7.33 - $14.73) / $14.73 = -50.3% $0.35 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
0.35$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.35)

Implied Market Multiple 42.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.35 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $5.93 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.9x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing