CO2 Energy Transition Corp. logo NOEM - CO2 Energy Transition Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 174.5% above fair value
Current Price $10.50
Bear Case $3.06 70.9% downside ($3.06 - $10.50) / $10.50 = -70.9% $0.17 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $3.83 63.6% downside ($3.83 - $10.50) / $10.50 = -63.6% $0.17 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $4.59 56.3% downside ($4.59 - $10.50) / $10.50 = -56.3% $0.17 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 61.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.17, the base-case value is $3.83 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples