NNN REIT, Inc. logo NNN - NNN REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $46.00
CONSENSUS: $46.36
UPSIDE: 3.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.4% below fair value
Current Price $45.00
Bear Case $43.22 3.9% downside ($43.22 - $45.00) / $45.00 = -3.9% $3.46 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $53.22 18.3% upside ($53.22 - $45.00) / $45.00 = 18.3% $3.46 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $63.22 40.5% upside ($63.22 - $45.00) / $45.00 = 40.5% $3.46 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

17.4x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.46) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.36 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.22 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify