NNN REIT, Inc. logo NNN - NNN REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $48.29
UPSIDE: 10.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.0% below fair value
Current Price $43.87
Bear Case $45.12 2.9% upside ($45.12 - $43.87) / $43.87 = 2.9% $3.46 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $55.56 26.6% upside ($55.56 - $43.87) / $43.87 = 26.6% $3.46 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $66.00 50.4% upside ($66.00 - $43.87) / $43.87 = 50.4% $3.46 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

17.4x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.46) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.46 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.56 per share. Dividend yield: 5.5%. DDM cross-check: $45.01.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $48.29
Analyst Range $47.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify