NNN - NNN REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$48.29
DETAILS
HIGH:
$50.00
LOW:
$47.00
MEDIAN:
$48.00
CONSENSUS:
$48.29
UPSIDE:
10.08%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.4x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($3.46) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $3.46 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.56 per share. Dividend yield: 5.5%. DDM cross-check: $45.01.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$48.29
Analyst Range
$47.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify