NNN REIT, Inc. logo NNN - NNN REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.25
UPSIDE: 12.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.4% below fair value
Current Price $42.03
Bear Case $45.17 7.5% upside ($45.17 - $42.03) / $42.03 = 7.5% $3.46 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $55.61 32.3% upside ($55.61 - $42.03) / $42.03 = 32.3% $3.46 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $66.06 57.2% upside ($66.06 - $42.03) / $42.03 = 57.2% $3.46 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

17.4x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.46) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.46 FFO/share with a 17x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $55.61 per share. Dividend yield: 5.8%. DDM cross-check: $45.19.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $47.25
Analyst Range $43.00 – $50.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify