NNN REIT, Inc. logo NNN - NNN REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $47.75
CONSENSUS: $47.56
DOWNSIDE: 3.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.1% below fair value
Current Price $49.23
Bear Case $43.50 11.6% downside ($43.50 - $49.23) / $49.23 = -11.6% $3.46 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $53.56 8.8% upside ($53.56 - $49.23) / $49.23 = 8.8% $3.46 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $63.62 29.2% upside ($63.62 - $49.23) / $49.23 = 29.2% $3.46 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

17.4x
3.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.46) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.56 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.56 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify