Newmark Group, Inc. logo NMRK - Newmark Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $18.67
UPSIDE: 57.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.1% below fair value
Current Price $11.86
Bear Case $9.69 18.3% downside ($9.69 - $11.86) / $11.86 = -18.3% $0.68 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $12.12 2.2% upside ($12.12 - $11.86) / $11.86 = 2.2% $0.68 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $14.54 22.6% upside ($14.54 - $11.86) / $11.86 = 22.6% $0.68 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.68, the base-case value is $12.12 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $18.67
Analyst Range $14.00 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $18.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples