Newmark Group, Inc. logo NMRK - Newmark Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $21.00
UPSIDE: 43.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.2% above fair value
Current Price $14.60
Bear Case $11.54 20.9% downside ($11.54 - $14.60) / $14.60 = -20.9% $0.72 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $14.43 1.2% downside ($14.43 - $14.60) / $14.60 = -1.2% $0.72 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $17.32 18.6% upside ($17.32 - $14.60) / $14.60 = 18.6% $0.72 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.8x
0.72$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.43 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples