Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. logo NIC - Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $182.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $190.00
LOW: $173.00
MEDIAN: $185.00
CONSENSUS: $182.67
UPSIDE: 28.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.8% below fair value
Current Price $141.69
Bear Case $120.65 14.8% downside ($120.65 - $141.69) / $141.69 = -14.8% ROTCE 12.9% → 2.16x TBV
Fair Value $178.92 26.3% upside ($178.92 - $141.69) / $141.69 = 26.3% ROTCE 17.2% → 3.20x TBV
Bull Case $213.88 51.0% upside ($213.88 - $141.69) / $141.69 = 51.0% ROTCE 19.8% → 3.82x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.2%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.55x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $182.67 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $178.92 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly