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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 44.7% above fair value
Current Price $196.00
Bear Case $108.35 44.7% downside ($108.35 - $196.00) / $196.00 = -44.7% $8.59 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $135.44 30.9% downside ($135.44 - $196.00) / $196.00 = -30.9% $8.59 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $162.52 17.1% downside ($162.52 - $196.00) / $196.00 = -17.1% $8.59 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.8x
8.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.59, the base-case value is $135.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $58.38.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $58.38 (below our primary estimate by 57%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples