AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies National HealthCare Corporation as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag NHC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is National HealthCare Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for NHC comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value NHC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. NHC was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from NHC's most recent reported fundamentals.

NHC - National HealthCare Corporation

Price: -- --

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 83.2% above fair value

Current Price $222.70

Bear Case $97.23 56.3% downside ($97.23 - $222.70) / $222.70 = -56.3% $7.67 × 13x P/E

Fair Value $121.53 45.4% downside ($121.53 - $222.70) / $222.70 = -45.4% $7.67 × 16x P/E

Bull Case $145.84 34.5% downside ($145.84 - $222.70) / $222.70 = -34.5% $7.67 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.8x

Adjusted EPS

7.67$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 29.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.67, the base-case value is $121.53 per share. DDM cross-check: $56.13.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $56.13 (below our primary estimate by 54%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples