New Gold Inc. logo NGD - New Gold Inc.

Inactive Ticker NGD is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 59.7% above fair value
Current Price $9.08
Bear Case $3.15 65.3% downside ($3.15 - $9.08) / $9.08 = -65.3% FCF −30% × 12x
Fair Value $5.69 37.4% downside ($5.69 - $9.08) / $9.08 = -37.4% Current FCF × 15x
Bull Case $8.92 1.8% downside ($8.92 - $9.08) / $9.08 = -1.8% FCF +30% × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
15.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Implied Market Multiple 23.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 15x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $5.69 per share. Range: $3.15 to $8.92.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.
⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

Key Risks

  • AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
  • Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
  • Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically