NextEra Energy, Inc. logo NEE - NextEra Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $87.00
MEDIAN: $102.00
CONSENSUS: $99.56
UPSIDE: 12.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 25.3% above fair value
Current Price $88.55
Bear Case $61.82 30.2% downside ($61.82 - $88.55) / $88.55 = -30.2% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $70.66 20.2% downside ($70.66 - $88.55) / $88.55 = -20.2% $3.50 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $79.49 10.2% downside ($79.49 - $88.55) / $88.55 = -10.2% $3.50 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.7x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $99.56 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.66 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $31061.48 (above our primary estimate by 53201%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $99.56 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples