NextEra Energy, Inc. logo NEE - NextEra Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $101.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $117.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $101.60
UPSIDE: 15.97%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.9% above fair value
Current Price $87.61
Bear Case $62.36 28.8% downside ($62.36 - $87.61) / $87.61 = -28.8% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $71.27 18.7% downside ($71.27 - $87.61) / $87.61 = -18.7% $3.50 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $80.19 8.5% downside ($80.19 - $87.61) / $87.61 = -8.5% $3.50 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.7x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $101.60 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $71.27 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $31061.48 (above our primary estimate by 53202%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $101.60 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples