NextEra Energy, Inc. logo NEE - NextEra Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.11 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $91.00
MEDIAN: $102.00
CONSENSUS: $102.11
UPSIDE: 22.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 52.2% above fair value
Current Price $83.43
Bear Case $47.97 42.5% downside ($47.97 - $83.43) / $83.43 = -42.5% $3.29 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $54.83 34.3% downside ($54.83 - $83.43) / $83.43 = -34.3% $3.29 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $61.68 26.1% downside ($61.68 - $83.43) / $83.43 = -26.1% $3.29 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.7x
3.29$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.29, the base-case value is $54.83 per share. DDM cross-check: $9946.85.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $102.11
Analyst Range $91.00 – $114.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 46%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $9946.85 (above our primary estimate by 18043%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $102.11 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples