Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. logo NECB - Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.50
LOW: $29.50
MEDIAN: $29.50
CONSENSUS: $29.50
UPSIDE: 12.68%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 74.2% below fair value
Current Price $26.18
Bear Case $64.42 146.1% upside ($64.42 - $26.18) / $26.18 = 146.1% ROTCE 9.5% → 2.53x TBV
Fair Value $101.60 288.1% upside ($101.60 - $26.18) / $26.18 = 288.1% ROTCE 12.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $101.69 288.4% upside ($101.69 - $26.18) / $26.18 = 288.4% ROTCE 14.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.6%
6.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.03x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.6% vs. 6.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $25.42 tangible book, implying $101.60 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly