NECB - Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
12.6%
6.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.94x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 12.6% vs. 6.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.75x on $25.42 tangible book, implying $95.29 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly