Nordson Corporation logo NDSN - Nordson Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $311.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $335.00
LOW: $270.00
MEDIAN: $319.50
CONSENSUS: $311.50
UPSIDE: 7.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.9% above fair value
Current Price $289.90
Bear Case $147.82 49.0% downside ($147.82 - $289.90) / $289.90 = -49.0% $9.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $184.77 36.3% downside ($184.77 - $289.90) / $289.90 = -36.3% $9.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $221.73 23.5% downside ($221.73 - $289.90) / $289.90 = -23.5% $9.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $311.50 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $184.77 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $311.50 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples