Nordson Corporation logo NDSN - Nordson Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $360.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $375.00
LOW: $345.00
MEDIAN: $360.00
CONSENSUS: $360.20
UPSIDE: 9.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 157.0% above fair value
Current Price $328.04
Bear Case $102.12 68.9% downside ($102.12 - $328.04) / $328.04 = -68.9% $8.51 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $127.65 61.1% downside ($127.65 - $328.04) / $328.04 = -61.1% $8.51 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $153.18 53.3% downside ($153.18 - $328.04) / $328.04 = -53.3% $8.51 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
8.51$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 38.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.51, the base-case value is $127.65 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $360.20
Analyst Range $345.00 – $375.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $360.20 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples