Nordson Corporation logo NDSN - Nordson Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $323.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $345.00
LOW: $300.00
MEDIAN: $325.00
CONSENSUS: $323.80
UPSIDE: 12.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 52.6% above fair value
Current Price $286.60
Bear Case $150.28 47.6% downside ($150.28 - $286.60) / $286.60 = -47.6% $9.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $187.84 34.5% downside ($187.84 - $286.60) / $286.60 = -34.5% $9.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $225.42 21.3% downside ($225.42 - $286.60) / $286.60 = -21.3% $9.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $323.80 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $187.84 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $323.80 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples