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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $145.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $145.00
LOW: $145.00
MEDIAN: $145.00
CONSENSUS: $145.00
UPSIDE: 6.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.3% below fair value
Current Price $136.31
Bear Case $153.62 12.7% upside ($153.62 - $136.31) / $136.31 = 12.7% ROTCE 12.7% → 2.48x TBV
Fair Value $228.43 67.6% upside ($228.43 - $136.31) / $136.31 = 67.6% ROTCE 16.9% → 3.69x TBV
Bull Case $247.48 81.6% upside ($247.48 - $136.31) / $136.31 = 81.6% ROTCE 19.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.2x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.9% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.69x on $61.87 tangible book, implying $228.43 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly