Northeast Bank logo NBN - Northeast Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $151.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $151.00
LOW: $151.00
MEDIAN: $151.00
CONSENSUS: $151.00
UPSIDE: 19.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.7% below fair value
Current Price $126.10
Bear Case $193.06 53.1% upside ($193.06 - $126.10) / $126.10 = 53.1% ROTCE 13.3% → 2.65x TBV
Fair Value $284.95 126.0% upside ($284.95 - $126.10) / $126.10 = 126.0% ROTCE 17.8% → 3.91x TBV
Bull Case $291.47 131.1% upside ($291.47 - $126.10) / $126.10 = 131.1% ROTCE 20.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.8%
7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.73x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 17.8% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.91x on $72.87 tangible book, implying $284.95 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly