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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $145.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $145.00
LOW: $145.00
MEDIAN: $145.00
CONSENSUS: $145.00
UPSIDE: 17.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.4% below fair value
Current Price $123.50
Bear Case $149.39 21.0% upside ($149.39 - $123.50) / $123.50 = 21.0% ROTCE 12.7% → 2.41x TBV
Fair Value $222.14 79.9% upside ($222.14 - $123.50) / $123.50 = 79.9% ROTCE 16.9% → 3.59x TBV
Bull Case $247.48 100.4% upside ($247.48 - $123.50) / $123.50 = 100.4% ROTCE 19.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.9%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.0x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.9% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.59x on $61.87 tangible book, implying $222.14 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly