Nordic American Tankers Limited logo NAT - Nordic American Tankers Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 11
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $4.00
LOW: $3.00
MEDIAN: $3.50
CONSENSUS: $3.50
DOWNSIDE: 51.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 290.0% above fair value
Current Price $7.25
Bear Case $1.49 79.5% downside ($1.49 - $7.25) / $7.25 = -79.5% $0.12 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $1.86 74.4% downside ($1.86 - $7.25) / $7.25 = -74.4% $0.12 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $2.23 69.2% downside ($2.23 - $7.25) / $7.25 = -69.2% $0.12 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.12$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 58.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.12, the base-case value is $1.86 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $3.50
Analyst Range $3.00 – $4.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 47%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 114%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 1362% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples