Niagen Bioscience Inc logo NAGE - Niagen Bioscience Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $11.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.50
CONSENSUS: $10.50
UPSIDE: 186.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.8% below fair value
Current Price $3.66
Bear Case $4.94 35.0% upside ($4.94 - $3.66) / $3.66 = 35.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $8.67 136.8% upside ($8.67 - $3.66) / $3.66 = 136.8% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $13.52 269.5% upside ($13.52 - $3.66) / $3.66 = 269.5% 28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 17.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions