The Marzetti Company logo MZTI - The Marzetti Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $135.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $140.00
LOW: $130.00
MEDIAN: $135.00
CONSENSUS: $135.00
UPSIDE: 33.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.8% below fair value
Current Price $101.08
Bear Case $97.72 3.3% downside ($97.72 - $101.08) / $101.08 = -3.3% $6.98 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $118.66 17.4% upside ($118.66 - $101.08) / $101.08 = 17.4% $6.98 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $139.60 38.1% upside ($139.60 - $101.08) / $101.08 = 38.1% $6.98 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.98, the base-case value is $118.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $121.73.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $135.00
Analyst Range $130.00 – $140.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples