The Marzetti Company logo MZTI - The Marzetti Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $140.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $140.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $140.00
CONSENSUS: $140.00
UPSIDE: 22.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.4% above fair value
Current Price $114.36
Bear Case $91.04 20.4% downside ($91.04 - $114.36) / $114.36 = -20.4% $6.07 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $110.55 3.3% downside ($110.55 - $114.36) / $114.36 = -3.3% $6.07 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $130.06 13.7% upside ($130.06 - $114.36) / $114.36 = 13.7% $6.07 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
6.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.55 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples