Myers Industries, Inc. logo MYE - Myers Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
DOWNSIDE: 15.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 198.7% above fair value
Current Price $30.66
Bear Case $6.32 79.4% downside ($6.32 - $30.66) / $30.66 = -79.4% $0.97 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $10.26 66.5% downside ($10.26 - $30.66) / $30.66 = -66.5% $0.97 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $14.22 53.6% downside ($14.22 - $30.66) / $30.66 = -53.6% $0.97 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
0.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)

Implied Market Multiple 31.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.26 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing