Myers Industries, Inc. logo MYE - Myers Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
DOWNSIDE: 16.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 235.8% above fair value
Current Price $31.07
Bear Case $6.82 78.1% downside ($6.82 - $31.07) / $31.07 = -78.1% $0.97 × 7x
Fair Value $9.25 70.2% downside ($9.25 - $31.07) / $31.07 = -70.2% $0.97 × 10x
Bull Case $11.69 62.4% downside ($11.69 - $31.07) / $31.07 = -62.4% $0.97 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
0.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.97)

Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.97 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $9.25 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $26.00
Analyst Range $26.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing