MVB Financial Corp. logo MVBF - MVB Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $30.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.9% above fair value
Current Price $30.16
Bear Case $17.32 42.6% downside ($17.32 - $30.16) / $30.16 = -42.6% ROTCE 6.0% → 0.44x TBV
Fair Value $24.75 17.9% downside ($24.75 - $30.16) / $30.16 = -17.9% ROTCE 8.1% → 0.86x TBV
Bull Case $32.18 6.7% upside ($32.18 - $30.16) / $30.16 = 6.7% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.12x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.1%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.16x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.1% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.86x on $25.99 tangible book, implying $24.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.44.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $30.00
Analyst Range $30.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (8.1%) is below the minimum investors require (8.7%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.44 (66% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly