MVB Financial Corp. logo MVBF - MVB Financial Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $30.00
UPSIDE: 3.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.8% above fair value
Current Price $28.91
Bear Case $17.32 40.1% downside ($17.32 - $28.91) / $28.91 = -40.1% ROTCE 6.0% → 0.41x TBV
Fair Value $24.75 14.4% downside ($24.75 - $28.91) / $28.91 = -14.4% ROTCE 8.1% → 0.80x TBV
Bull Case $32.18 11.3% upside ($32.18 - $28.91) / $28.91 = 11.3% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.04x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.1%
9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.11x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.1% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.80x on $25.99 tangible book, implying $24.75 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.09.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $30.00
Analyst Range $30.00 – $30.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (8.1%) is below the minimum investors require (9.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $8.09 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly