Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. logo MUFG - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
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BUY 2
HOLD 0
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STRONG
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.2% below fair value
Current Price $22.43
Bear Case $29.90 33.3% upside ($29.90 - $22.43) / $22.43 = 33.3% ROTCE 9.5% → 2.71x TBV
Fair Value $44.17 96.9% upside ($44.17 - $22.43) / $22.43 = 96.9% ROTCE 12.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $44.17 96.9% upside ($44.17 - $22.43) / $22.43 = 96.9% ROTCE 14.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.6%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.03x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.6% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $11.04 tangible book, implying $44.17 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0061 USD per JPY.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly