Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. logo MUFG - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.0% below fair value
Current Price $23.86
Bear Case $28.09 17.7% upside ($28.09 - $23.86) / $23.86 = 17.7% ROTCE 8.9% → 2.38x TBV
Fair Value $45.07 88.8% upside ($45.07 - $23.86) / $23.86 = 88.8% ROTCE 11.9% → 3.82x TBV
Bull Case $47.16 97.6% upside ($47.16 - $23.86) / $23.86 = 97.6% ROTCE 13.7% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
6.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (6.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.02x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 6.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.82x on $11.79 tangible book, implying $45.07 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Financial statements were converted from JPY into USD using USDJPY at 0.0065 USD per JPY.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly