Minerals Technologies Inc. logo MTX - Minerals Technologies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $37.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $37.00
CONSENSUS: $37.00
DOWNSIDE: 41.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 46.7% above fair value
Current Price $62.99
Bear Case $33.37 47.0% downside ($33.37 - $62.99) / $62.99 = -47.0% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $42.94 31.8% downside ($42.94 - $62.99) / $62.99 = -31.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $51.25 18.6% downside ($51.25 - $62.99) / $62.99 = -18.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.0% vs our 5.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $42.94 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $37.00
Analyst Range $37.00 – $37.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions