MTW - The Manitowoc Company, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$16.00
LOW:
$16.00
MEDIAN:
$16.00
CONSENSUS:
$16.00
DOWNSIDE:
18.99%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.9x
0.47$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
41.8x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $7.50 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$16.00
Analyst Range
$16.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 136%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 160% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples