The Manitowoc Company, Inc. logo MTW - The Manitowoc Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 13
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.00
DOWNSIDE: 18.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 163.2% above fair value
Current Price $19.75
Bear Case $6.00 69.6% downside ($6.00 - $19.75) / $19.75 = -69.6% $0.47 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $7.50 62.0% downside ($7.50 - $19.75) / $19.75 = -62.0% $0.47 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $9.00 54.4% downside ($9.00 - $19.75) / $19.75 = -54.4% $0.47 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
0.47$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.47, the base-case value is $7.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $16.00
Analyst Range $16.00 – $16.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 136%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 160% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples