The Manitowoc Company, Inc. logo MTW - The Manitowoc Company, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 13
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $10.00
CONSENSUS: $10.00
DOWNSIDE: 21.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.5% below fair value
Current Price $12.78
Bear Case $12.39 3.0% downside ($12.39 - $12.78) / $12.78 = -3.0% $1.09 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $15.50 21.3% upside ($15.50 - $12.78) / $12.78 = 21.3% $1.09 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $18.59 45.5% upside ($18.59 - $12.78) / $12.78 = 45.5% $1.09 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.9x
1.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.50 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 445%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 160% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples