Materion Corporation logo MTRN - Materion Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $161.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $161.00
LOW: $161.00
MEDIAN: $161.00
CONSENSUS: $161.00
DOWNSIDE: 27.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 442.4% above fair value
Current Price $222.93
Bear Case $8.09 96.4% downside ($8.09 - $222.93) / $222.93 = -96.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $41.10 81.6% downside ($41.10 - $222.93) / $222.93 = -81.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $72.46 67.5% downside ($72.46 - $222.93) / $222.93 = -67.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 125.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.10 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $161.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions