Mettler-Toledo International Inc. logo MTD - Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,383.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,500.00
LOW: $1,194.00
MEDIAN: $1,400.00
CONSENSUS: $1,383.80
UPSIDE: 6.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 55.8% above fair value
Current Price $1298.17
Bear Case $666.58 48.7% downside ($666.58 - $1,298.17) / $1,298.17 = -48.7% $43.31 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $833.23 35.8% downside ($833.23 - $1,298.17) / $1,298.17 = -35.8% $43.31 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $999.88 23.0% downside ($999.88 - $1,298.17) / $1,298.17 = -23.0% $43.31 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
43.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1383.80 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $833.23 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1383.80 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples