Mettler-Toledo International Inc. logo MTD - Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,466.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,600.00
LOW: $1,194.00
MEDIAN: $1,515.00
CONSENSUS: $1,466.29
UPSIDE: 9.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 112.7% above fair value
Current Price $1345.26
Bear Case $506.04 62.4% downside ($506.04 - $1,345.26) / $1,345.26 = -62.4% $42.17 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $632.55 53.0% downside ($632.55 - $1,345.26) / $1,345.26 = -53.0% $42.17 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $759.06 43.6% downside ($759.06 - $1,345.26) / $1,345.26 = -43.6% $42.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
42.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $42.17, the base-case value is $632.55 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $1466.29
Analyst Range $1194.00 – $1600.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 57%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1466.29 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples