Mettler-Toledo International Inc. logo MTD - Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,442.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,600.00
LOW: $1,194.00
MEDIAN: $1,475.00
CONSENSUS: $1,442.00
UPSIDE: 30.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.1% above fair value
Current Price $1103.09
Bear Case $678.22 38.5% downside ($678.22 - $1,103.09) / $1,103.09 = -38.5% $43.31 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $847.78 23.1% downside ($847.78 - $1,103.09) / $1,103.09 = -23.1% $43.31 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $1,017.34 7.8% downside ($1,017.34 - $1,103.09) / $1,103.09 = -7.8% $43.31 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
43.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1442.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $847.78 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1442.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples