Match Group, Inc. logo MTCH - Match Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $41.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $51.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $41.13
UPSIDE: 14.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.1% below fair value
Current Price $35.80
Bear Case $31.75 11.3% downside ($31.75 - $35.80) / $35.80 = -11.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $41.70 16.5% upside ($41.70 - $35.80) / $35.80 = 16.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $50.72 41.7% upside ($50.72 - $35.80) / $35.80 = 41.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 13.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.13 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 42% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions