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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.8% below fair value
Current Price $25.22
Bear Case $144.69 473.7% upside ($144.69 - $25.22) / $25.22 = 473.7% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.46x TBV
Fair Value $206.70 719.6% upside ($206.70 - $25.22) / $25.22 = 719.6% ROTCE 19.0% → 2.14x TBV
Bull Case $268.71 965.5% upside ($268.71 - $25.22) / $25.22 = 965.5% ROTCE 21.8% → 2.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.45x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.0% vs. 11.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.14x on $56.55 tangible book, implying $206.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly