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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 21
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.9% below fair value
Current Price $25.00
Bear Case $144.69 478.8% upside ($144.69 - $25.00) / $25.00 = 478.8% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.46x TBV
Fair Value $206.70 726.8% upside ($206.70 - $25.00) / $25.00 = 726.8% ROTCE 19.0% → 2.14x TBV
Bull Case $268.71 974.8% upside ($268.71 - $25.00) / $25.00 = 974.8% ROTCE 21.8% → 2.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.44x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.0% vs. 11.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.14x on $56.36 tangible book, implying $206.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly