Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares logo MRX - Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $57.50
CONSENSUS: $57.50
UPSIDE: 8.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.7% above fair value
Current Price $53.20
Bear Case $52.80 0.7% downside ($52.80 - $53.20) / $53.20 = -0.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $52.80 0.7% downside ($52.80 - $53.20) / $53.20 = -0.7% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $52.80 0.7% downside ($52.80 - $53.20) / $53.20 = -0.7% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

33.2%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (33.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.12x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.80 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly