Marvell Technology, Inc. logo MRVL - Marvell Technology, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 60
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $250.58 DETAILS
HIGH: $385.00
LOW: $155.00
MEDIAN: $240.00
CONSENSUS: $250.58
UPSIDE: 6.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 97.3% above fair value
Current Price $235.81
Bear Case $58.72 75.1% downside ($58.72 - $235.81) / $235.81 = -75.1% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $119.52 49.3% downside ($119.52 - $235.81) / $235.81 = -49.3% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $199.83 15.3% downside ($199.83 - $235.81) / $235.81 = -15.3% 29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

22.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 218.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 43.8% vs our 22.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $250.58 from 73 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.52 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $250.58 (from 73 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions