Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. logo MRVI - Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.00
DOWNSIDE: 21.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.8% above fair value
Current Price $7.68
Bear Case $3.28 57.3% downside ($3.28 - $7.68) / $7.68 = -57.3% $0.27 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $3.83 50.2% downside ($3.83 - $7.68) / $7.68 = -50.2% $0.27 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $4.37 43.1% downside ($4.37 - $7.68) / $7.68 = -43.1% $0.27 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
0.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.27, the base-case value is $3.83 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $6.00
Analyst Range $6.00 – $6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $6.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples