Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc. logo MRVI - Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $6.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $6.00
MEDIAN: $6.00
CONSENSUS: $6.00
DOWNSIDE: 7.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.5% below fair value
Current Price $6.51
Bear Case $18.92 190.6% upside ($18.92 - $6.51) / $6.51 = 190.6% $1.86 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $22.07 239.0% upside ($22.07 - $6.51) / $6.51 = 239.0% $1.86 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $25.22 287.4% upside ($25.22 - $6.51) / $6.51 = 287.4% $1.86 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
1.86$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $6.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.07 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $6.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 335% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples