Marten Transport, Ltd. logo MRTN - Marten Transport, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $22.50
CONSENSUS: $22.50
UPSIDE: 34.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 91.7% above fair value
Current Price $16.69
Bear Case $6.57 60.6% downside ($6.57 - $16.69) / $16.69 = -60.6% $0.86 × 4x + net cash
Fair Value $8.71 47.8% downside ($8.71 - $16.69) / $16.69 = -47.8% $0.86 × 6x + net cash
Bull Case $10.84 35.0% downside ($10.84 - $16.69) / $16.69 = -35.0% $0.86 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

5.5x
0.86$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.86)

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.71 per share.

Warnings

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $22.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing