AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Marten Transport, Ltd. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MRTN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Marten Transport, Ltd.'s fair value?

Fair value for MRTN comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MRTN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MRTN was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from MRTN's most recent reported fundamentals.

MRTN - Marten Transport, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $16.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 204.4% above fair value

Current Price $14.40

Bear Case $3.44 76.1% downside ($3.44 - $14.40) / $14.40 = -76.1% $0.86 × 4x

Fair Value $4.73 67.2% downside ($4.73 - $14.40) / $14.40 = -67.2% $0.86 × 6x

Bull Case $6.02 58.2% downside ($6.02 - $14.40) / $14.40 = -58.2% $0.86 × 7x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

5.5x

Normalized EPS

0.86$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.86)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.86 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $4.73 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $16.00

Analyst Range $16.00 – $16.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 70%

Warnings

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing