AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Millrose Properties, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MRP as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Millrose Properties, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MRP is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MRP?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MRP's most recent reported fundamentals.

MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 43.2% below fair value

Current Price $28.17

Bear Case $41.89 48.7% upside ($41.89 - $28.17) / $28.17 = 48.7% $2.46 FFO × 16x

Fair Value $49.59 76.0% upside ($49.59 - $28.17) / $28.17 = 76.0% $2.46 FFO × 19x

Bull Case $57.28 103.3% upside ($57.28 - $28.17) / $28.17 = 103.3% $2.46 FFO × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.0x

FFO per Share

2.46$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.46) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.46 FFO/share with a 19x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $49.59 per share. Dividend yield: 10.7%. DDM cross-check: $56.10.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 10.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify