Moderna, Inc. logo MRNA - Moderna, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 16
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $77.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $46.50
DOWNSIDE: 31.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 79.2% below fair value
Current Price $68.27
Bear Case $281.31 312.1% upside ($281.31 - $68.27) / $68.27 = 312.1% $20.10 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $328.20 380.7% upside ($328.20 - $68.27) / $68.27 = 380.7% $20.10 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $375.09 449.4% upside ($375.09 - $68.27) / $68.27 = 449.4% $20.10 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
20.1$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 3.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.50 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $328.20 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $46.50 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 808% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples