AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Medical Properties Trust, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MPW as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MPW comes from a P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MPW?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MPW was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple, built from MPW's most recent reported fundamentals.

MPW - Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $11.54 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Healthcare REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 42.3% above fair value

Current Price $5.36

Bear Case $3.08 42.6% downside ($3.08 - $5.36) / $5.36 = -42.6% $0.11 FFO × 18x

Fair Value $3.77 29.7% downside ($3.77 - $5.36) / $5.36 = -29.7% $0.11 FFO × 23x

Bull Case $4.46 16.8% downside ($4.46 - $5.36) / $5.36 = -16.8% $0.11 FFO × 28x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.6x

FFO per Share

0.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.11) × healthcare P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 48.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.11 FFO/share with a 23x healthcare REIT multiple, the base-case value is $3.77 per share. Dividend yield: 6.7%. DDM cross-check: $6.71.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $11.54

Analyst Range $5.00 – $27.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 67%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 6.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $6.71 (78% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $11.54 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify