AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MPB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MPB comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MPB?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MPB was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from MPB's most recent reported fundamentals.

MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 11.8% below fair value

Current Price $36.41

Bear Case $21.77 40.2% downside ($21.77 - $36.41) / $36.41 = -40.2% ROTCE 6.4% → 0.83x TBV

Fair Value $41.30 13.4% upside ($41.30 - $36.41) / $36.41 = 13.4% ROTCE 8.5% → 1.58x TBV

Bull Case $53.02 45.6% upside ($53.02 - $36.41) / $36.41 = 45.6% ROTCE 9.8% → 2.03x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

8.5%

Cost of Equity

6.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.5%) vs. cost of equity (6.8%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.39x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.5% vs. 6.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.58x on $26.15 tangible book, implying $41.30 per share. DDM cross-check: $27.25.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $27.25 (34% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly