Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. logo MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $38.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $38.00
UPSIDE: 5.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.6% below fair value
Current Price $35.94
Bear Case $21.69 39.7% downside ($21.69 - $35.94) / $35.94 = -39.7% ROTCE 6.4% → 0.83x TBV
Fair Value $41.14 14.5% upside ($41.14 - $35.94) / $35.94 = 14.5% ROTCE 8.5% → 1.57x TBV
Bull Case $52.81 46.9% upside ($52.81 - $35.94) / $35.94 = 46.9% ROTCE 9.8% → 2.02x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

8.5%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (8.5%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.37x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 8.5% vs. 6.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.57x on $26.15 tangible book, implying $41.14 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.01.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $22.01 (46% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly