The Mosaic Company logo MOS - The Mosaic Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 27
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $27.50
CONSENSUS: $28.00
UPSIDE: 23.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.8% below fair value
Current Price $22.68
Bear Case $14.97 34.0% downside ($14.97 - $22.68) / $22.68 = -34.0% $3.50 × 7x + net cash
Fair Value $24.32 7.3% upside ($24.32 - $22.68) / $22.68 = 7.3% $3.50 × 10x + net cash
Bull Case $33.68 48.5% upside ($33.68 - $22.68) / $22.68 = 48.5% $3.50 × 12x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

9.5x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.50)

Implied Market Multiple 6.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.00 from 49 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.32 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
ℹ Price-to-book value of 0.7x is below the typical low point. This could be a bargain, but check whether asset write-downs are coming.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing