AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies The Mosaic Company as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MOS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is The Mosaic Company's fair value?

Fair value for MOS comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MOS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MOS was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from MOS's most recent reported fundamentals.

MOS - The Mosaic Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $26.44 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 29.0% below fair value

Current Price $23.60

Bear Case $24.50 3.8% upside ($24.50 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 3.8% $3.50 × 7x

Fair Value $33.25 40.9% upside ($33.25 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 40.9% $3.50 × 10x

Bull Case $42.00 78.0% upside ($42.00 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 78.0% $3.50 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

3.5$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.50)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $3.50 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $33.25 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.7x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (49 analysts) $26.44

Analyst Range $22.00 – $31.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

ℹ Price-to-book value of 0.7x is below the typical low point. This could be a bargain, but check whether asset write-downs are coming.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $26.44 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing