Is MOG-A undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Moog Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MOG-A as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Moog Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MOG-A comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MOG-A?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MOG-A was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from MOG-A's most recent reported fundamentals.

MOG-A - Moog Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $131.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 216.4% above fair value

Current Price $371.68

Bear Case $96.12 74.1% downside ($96.12 - $371.68) / $371.68 = -74.1% $5.34 × 18x

Fair Value $117.48 68.4% downside ($117.48 - $371.68) / $371.68 = -68.4% $5.34 × 22x

Bull Case $138.84 62.6% downside ($138.84 - $371.68) / $371.68 = -62.6% $5.34 × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

5.34$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.34)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 69.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $5.34 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $117.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 10.9x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $131.00

Analyst Range $131.00 – $131.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 10%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 10.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing