MOFG - MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$31.25
DETAILS
HIGH:
$31.50
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$31.25
CONSENSUS:
$31.25
DOWNSIDE:
36.63%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-13.3%
10.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-13.3%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.25x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.25 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.41 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-13.3%) is below the minimum investors require (10.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $11.05 (75% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.25 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly