monday.com Ltd. logo MNDY - monday.com Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $117.19 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $117.19
UPSIDE: 48.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.3% below fair value
Current Price $79.06
Bear Case $151.04 91.1% upside ($151.04 - $79.06) / $79.06 = 91.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $257.45 225.7% upside ($257.45 - $79.06) / $79.06 = 225.7% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $391.10 394.7% upside ($391.10 - $79.06) / $79.06 = 394.7% 26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.19 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $257.45 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $117.19 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 160% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions