Merit Medical Systems, Inc. logo MMSI - Merit Medical Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $101.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $94.00
MEDIAN: $100.50
CONSENSUS: $101.88
UPSIDE: 16.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 139.2% above fair value
Current Price $87.21
Bear Case $29.17 66.6% downside ($29.17 - $87.21) / $87.21 = -66.6% $2.13 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $36.46 58.2% downside ($36.46 - $87.21) / $87.21 = -58.2% $2.13 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $43.75 49.8% downside ($43.75 - $87.21) / $87.21 = -49.8% $2.13 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
2.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 40.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.13, the base-case value is $36.46 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $101.88
Analyst Range $94.00 – $114.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $101.88 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples