Merit Medical Systems, Inc. logo MMSI - Merit Medical Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $99.22 DETAILS
HIGH: $114.00
LOW: $78.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $99.22
UPSIDE: 8.93%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 149.9% above fair value
Current Price $91.09
Bear Case $29.17 68.0% downside ($29.17 - $91.09) / $91.09 = -68.0% $2.13 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $36.46 60.0% downside ($36.46 - $91.09) / $91.09 = -60.0% $2.13 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $43.75 52.0% downside ($43.75 - $91.09) / $91.09 = -52.0% $2.13 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
2.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 42.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.13, the base-case value is $36.46 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $99.22
Analyst Range $78.00 – $114.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $99.22 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples