3M Company logo MMM - 3M Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $166.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $190.00
LOW: $136.00
MEDIAN: $170.50
CONSENSUS: $166.75
UPSIDE: 5.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.2% above fair value
Current Price $157.52
Bear Case $118.64 24.7% downside ($118.64 - $157.52) / $157.52 = -24.7% $9.36 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $148.31 5.9% downside ($148.31 - $157.52) / $157.52 = -5.9% $9.36 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $177.97 13.0% upside ($177.97 - $157.52) / $157.52 = 13.0% $9.36 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
9.36$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $166.75 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $148.31 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 56%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples