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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $191.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $218.00
LOW: $171.00
MEDIAN: $191.00
CONSENSUS: $191.00
UPSIDE: 19.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.6% above fair value
Current Price $159.96
Bear Case $98.02 38.7% downside ($98.02 - $159.96) / $159.96 = -38.7% $8.17 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $122.52 23.4% downside ($122.52 - $159.96) / $159.96 = -23.4% $8.17 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $147.02 8.1% downside ($147.02 - $159.96) / $159.96 = -8.1% $8.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
8.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.17, the base-case value is $122.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $191.00
Analyst Range $171.00 – $218.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $191.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples