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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $185.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $218.00
LOW: $145.00
MEDIAN: $190.00
CONSENSUS: $185.00
UPSIDE: 3.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 46.0% above fair value
Current Price $178.83
Bear Case $98.02 45.2% downside ($98.02 - $178.83) / $178.83 = -45.2% $8.17 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $122.52 31.5% downside ($122.52 - $178.83) / $178.83 = -31.5% $8.17 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $147.02 17.8% downside ($147.02 - $178.83) / $178.83 = -17.8% $8.17 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
8.17$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $8.17, the base-case value is $122.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $185.00
Analyst Range $145.00 – $218.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 34%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $185.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples